Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Hubert Hurkacz		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.50	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.40	1.57
	2.56	1.61
	3.58	1.27	Watch
	2.45	1.59
	2.39	1.59	Watch
	2.50	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.22)	1.52 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 41.50

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
36.9%

Tommy Paul
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hubert Hurkacz's form might have worsened.

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tommy Paul's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tommy Paul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	0%	89.3%

Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Paul (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (24 of 27 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.04% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 96. Paul is ranked ATP: 25.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Hurkacz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paul is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hurkacz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 44.22%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Ofner	3:0 ✺
29.06.26	Casper Ruud - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Jakub Mensik - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
24.06.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Halle
17.06.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Daniel Altmaier	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Tommy Paul	0:3 ✺
29.06.26	Alexandre Muller - Tommy Paul	0:3 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
26.06.26	Tommy Paul - Novak Djokovic	1:2 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
24.06.26	Arthur Fils - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP London
21.06.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
15.05.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul	0:2
16.05.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Indian Wells
13.03.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Paris
03.11.21	Tommy Paul - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
08.05.20	Tommy Paul - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2

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