Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday


	Ilia Simakin		Florent Bax

	1	2
	1.48	2.5
	1.54	2.43
	1.52	2.65
	1.49	2.42	Watch
	1.53	2.55
	1.49	2.45	Watch
	1.49	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.62)	2.49 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
62.3%

Florent Bax
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilia Simakin's performance.

Florent Bax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Florent Bax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilia Simakin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Florent Bax than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Florent Bax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Ilia Simakin - Florent Bax Predictions

Users Predictions: Ilia Simakin will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 297. Bax is ranked ATP: 247.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Simakin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Simakin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Simakin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 56.91%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Florent Bax - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.09%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
05.08.26	Ilia Simakin - Fajing Sun	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Ilia Simakin - Gabi Adrian Boitan	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Ilia Simakin - Lautaro Midon	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
30.06.26	Ilia Simakin - Dimitar Kuzmanov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWL
- Florent Bax
ATP Challenger
05.08.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Florent Bax	1:2 ✺
04.08.26	Arthur Weber - Florent Bax	0:2 ✺
29.07.26	Gabriel Debru - Florent Bax	2:1 ✺
28.07.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Florent Bax	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Florent Bax - Paul Inchauspe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
29.12.23	Ilia Simakin - Florent Bax	0:2

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