Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday


	Ilia Simakin		Stefanos Sakellaridis

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.52	1.56
	2.85	1.38	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (1.79)	1.52 ↓ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
38.3%

Stefanos Sakellaridis
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ilia Simakin's form might have worsened.

Stefanos Sakellaridis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefanos Sakellaridis's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Sakellaridis than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stefanos Sakellaridis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	0%	54.5%

Ilia Simakin - Stefanos Sakellaridis Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Simakin will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Sakellaridis will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sakellaridis: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Sakellaridis (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 275. Sakellaridis is ranked ATP: 287.

Simakin is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sakellaridis has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Simakin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Simakin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
29.01.26	Nikolai Barsukov - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
28.01.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
27.01.26	Ilia Simakin - Federico Cina	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ilia Simakin - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Ilia Simakin - Daniel Michalski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW
- Stefanos Sakellaridis
ATP Challenger
29.01.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Pol Martin Tiffon	2:0 ✺
27.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Stefanos Sakellaridis	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Stefanos Sakellaridis	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Michele Ribecai	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
22.03.25	Ilia Simakin - Stefanos Sakellaridis	1:2

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