Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday


	Stefanos Sakellaridis		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	1.67	2.10
	1.65	2.10
	1.67	2.08
	1.66	2.06	Watch
	1.64	2.04
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.67	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.67)	2.07 (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis
55.5%

Keegan Smith
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefanos Sakellaridis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefanos Sakellaridis than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

Sakellaridis is ranked ATP: 135., and Smith is ranked ATP: 202..

Sakellaridis has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Smith has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sakellaridis could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Stefanos Sakellaridis - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.42%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefanos Sakellaridis
ATP Shanghai
05.10.26	Timofey Skatov - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
20.09.26	Norbert Gombos - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Alex Molcan - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Laslo Djere - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Keegan Smith - Yuquan Jin	Canceled ✺
05.10.26	Keegan Smith - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
02.10.26	Mitchell Krueger - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
01.10.26	Bryce Nakashima - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Kaylan Bigun - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 ?LLWW

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