Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Ilya Ivashka		Marat Sharipov

	1	2
	2.10	1.67	Watch
	1.87	1.83
	2.12	1.68	Watch
	2.01	1.71	Watch
	2.06	1.78
	1.97	1.73	Watch
	2.04	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.24)	1.73 ↑ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilya Ivashka
46.1%

Marat Sharipov
53.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilya Ivashka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Marat Sharipov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilya Ivashka than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilya Ivashka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marat Sharipov than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marat Sharipov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ilya Ivashka - Marat Sharipov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ivashka is ranked ATP: 237., and Sharipov is ranked ATP: 234..

Ivashka has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Sharipov have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sharipov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ivashka has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:1 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Marat Sharipov - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 58.8%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilya Ivashka
ATP Challenger
12.10.26	Ilya Ivashka - Kaichi Uchida	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Ilya Ivashka - Beibit Zhukayev	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Marat Sharipov - Ilya Ivashka	Canceled ✺
13.09.26	Ilya Ivashka - Marat Sharipov	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Ilya Ivashka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WW?WW
- Marat Sharipov
ATP Challenger
12.10.26	Marat Sharipov - Jake Delaney	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Marat Sharipov - Zhe Jiang	2:0
06.10.26	Omar Jasika - Marat Sharipov	Sharipov M. Retired ✺
05.10.26	Semen Pankin - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Andre Ilagan - Marat Sharipov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WW?WL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Marat Sharipov - Ilya Ivashka	Canceled
13.09.26	Ilya Ivashka - Marat Sharipov	2:1

Ilya Ivashka - Marat Sharipov