Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Ilya Ivashka

	1	2
	3.75	1.25	Watch
	3.80	1.22	Watch
	3.8	1.22
	4.46	1.24
	3.51	1.26	Watch
	4.35	1.21
	3.74	1.23	Watch
	3.8	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↑ (2.53)	1.23 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
24%

Ilya Ivashka
76%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Castelnuovo's form might have worsened.

Ilya Ivashka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilya Ivashka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+17%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castelnuovo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilya Ivashka than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilya Ivashka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Luca Castelnuovo - Ilya Ivashka Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ivashka will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ivashka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 461. Ivashka is ranked ATP: 393.

Castelnuovo has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ivashka is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ivashka will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ivashka will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Ji Sung Nam - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Tung-Lin Wu - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Tsung-Hao Huang	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Matthew Dellavedova	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WWWW?
- Ilya Ivashka
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Ilya Ivashka - Yi Zhou	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Ilya Ivashka	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Ilya Ivashka - Yu Hsiou Hsu	2:0 ✺
03.09.26	Ilia Simakin - Ilya Ivashka	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Akira Santillan - Ilya Ivashka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLW

Luca Castelnuovo - Ilya Ivashka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide