Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo (Japan), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday


	Jack Draper		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.2
	1.64	2.21	Watch
	1.67	2.34
	1.64	2.33	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.66	2.24	Watch
	1.64	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.02)	2.24 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
57.5%

Hubert Hurkacz
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jack Draper's performance.

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hubert Hurkacz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jack Draper that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hubert Hurkacz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Jack Draper - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Users Predictions: Jack Draper will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 20. Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 8.

Recent matches Draper is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hurkacz is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Draper could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Draper will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Draper won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Tokyo
25.09.24	Jack Draper - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
15.09.24	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Jack Draper	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Jack Draper - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
06.09.24	Jannik Sinner - Jack Draper	3:0 ✺
04.09.24	Jack Draper - Alex De Minaur	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Tokyo
25.09.24	Marcos Giron - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
29.08.24	Jordan Thompson - Hubert Hurkacz	3:0 ✺
27.08.24	Timofey Skatov - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	Hurkacz H. retired ✺
16.08.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Flavio Cobolli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:0
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1
ATP US Open
31.08.23	Jack Draper - Hubert Hurkacz	3:0
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1
ATP Antwerp
19.10.22	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:1

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