Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham, grass - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 June 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nottingham 🌤️ ... 🟢 Grass


	Jaime Faria		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
			Watch
	2.82	1.47
			Watch
	2.62	1.44	Watch
	2.59	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.16)	1.44 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaime Faria
35.1%

Shintaro Mochizuki
64.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaime Faria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jaime Faria's form might have worsened.

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shintaro Mochizuki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaime Faria than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jaime Faria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shintaro Mochizuki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Jaime Faria - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Faria will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Faria (votes: 1 - 50%). Mochizuki (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Mochizuki (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Faria (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Mochizuki (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Faria is ranked ATP: 119. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 164.

Faria has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mochizuki is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mochizuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mochizuki will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Mochizuki will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Faria won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaime Faria
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Jaime Faria - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
16.06.25	Brandon Holt - Jaime Faria	0:2 ✺
11.06.25	Matej Dodig - Jaime Faria	Faria J. retired ✺
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.25	Jenson Brooksby - Jaime Faria	3:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.05.25	Henrique Rocha - Jaime Faria	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WW?L?
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
16.06.25	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
14.06.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
13.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Oliver Crawford	2:0 ✺
12.06.25	Johannus Monday - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.05.24	Jaime Faria - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0

Jaime Faria - Shintaro Mochizuki