Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	James Story		Lui Maxted

	1	2
			Watch
	2.28	1.56	Watch
	2.4	1.56
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.4)	1.56 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

James Story
40.5%

Lui Maxted
59.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

James Story has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Lui Maxted has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for James Story than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lui Maxted than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

James Story - Lui Maxted Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Story will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Maxted will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Story (votes: 1 - 50%). Maxted (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Maxted (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Story (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Maxted (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Story is ranked ATP: 467. Maxted is ranked ATP: 451.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Story may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maxted is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Story won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- James Story
ITF Tournaments
10.02.26	Niels McDonald - James Story	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	James Story - Lui Maxted	1:2 ✺
29.01.26	James Story - Paul Jubb	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	James Story - Sean Hodkin	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	James Story - Sebastian Sorger	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWW
- Lui Maxted
ITF Tournaments
22.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Lui Maxted	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Lui Maxted - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Gastao Elias - Lui Maxted	Elias G. retired ✺
19.02.26	Naoya Honda - Lui Maxted	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Lui Maxted - Liam Broady	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LW?WW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
30.01.26	James Story - Lui Maxted	1:2
12.07.22	Lui Maxted - James Story	0:2

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