Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Jan Choinski		Andrea Collarini

	1	2
	1.32	3.49	Watch
			Watch
	1.51	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.51)	2.94 ↑ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
67.5%

Andrea Collarini
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jan Choinski's performance.

Andrea Collarini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Collarini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jan Choinski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Collarini than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrea Collarini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jan Choinski - Andrea Collarini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 150. Collarini is ranked ATP: 241.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Collarini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Choinski will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Collarini - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.72%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
05.08.25	Jan Choinski - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Jan Choinski - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
30.07.25	Jan Choinski - Dmitry Popko	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Giustino	2:1 ✺
20.07.25	Kimmer Coppejans - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW
- Andrea Collarini
ATP Challenger
01.08.25	Andrea Collarini - Gonzalo Bueno	0:2 ✺
31.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Cedrik-Marcel Stebe	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Andrea Collarini - Mika Brunold	1:2 ✺
21.07.25	Kilian Feldbausch - Andrea Collarini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW

Jan Choinski - Andrea Collarini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide