Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Merida, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
France	beIN Sports 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	Nova Sports 6
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Jasmine Paolini		Cristina Bucsa

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.41	2.85	Watch
	1.45	2.99
	1.30	3.51	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.43	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.45)	2.99 ↑ (2.8)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jasmine Paolini
68%

Cristina Bucsa
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jasmine Paolini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Cristina Bucsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cristina Bucsa than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa Predictions

Users Predictions: Jasmine Paolini will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jasmine Paolini will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paolini is ranked WTA: 7. Bucsa is ranked WTA: 63.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bucsa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paolini will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Merida
27.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Katie Boulter	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Priscilla Hon	2:0 ✺
WTA Dubai
17.02.26	Alexandra Eala - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Doha
10.02.26	Maria Sakkari - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Australian Open
23.01.26	Iva Jovic - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WWLLL
- Cristina Bucsa
WTA Merida
27.02.26	Zeynep Sonmez - Cristina Bucsa	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Cristina Bucsa - Marina Stakusic	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Cristina Bucsa - Donna Vekic	2:0 ✺
WTA Dubai
15.02.26	Ella Seidel - Cristina Bucsa	2:0 ✺
WTA Doha
09.02.26	Dayana Yastremska - Cristina Bucsa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Adelaide
07.01.24	Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa	0:2
WTA Cincinnati
16.08.23	Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa	2:0

Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide