Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Merida, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday


	Jasmine Paolini		Katie Boulter

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.52	2.47	Watch
	1.59	2.5
	2.77	1.45	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.55	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.4)	2.31 ↓ (2.98)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jasmine Paolini
57%

Katie Boulter
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jasmine Paolini's form might have worsened.

Katie Boulter has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Katie Boulter's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jasmine Paolini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Katie Boulter than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Katie Boulter, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Jasmine Paolini - Katie Boulter Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Paolini will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Boulter will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 1 - 50%). Boulter (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Paolini (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Boulter (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paolini is ranked WTA: 7. Boulter is ranked WTA: 69.

Paolini has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boulter is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Boulter may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Paolini is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paolini won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Merida
26.02.26	Jasmine Paolini - Priscilla Hon	2:0 ✺
WTA Dubai
17.02.26	Alexandra Eala - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Doha
10.02.26	Maria Sakkari - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Australian Open
23.01.26	Iva Jovic - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Magdalena Frech - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW
- Katie Boulter
WTA Merida
25.02.26	Katie Boulter - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	Osorio C. retired ✺
23.02.26	Katie Boulter - Beatriz Haddad Maia	2:0 ✺
WTA Ostrava
07.02.26	Katie Boulter - Tamara Korpatsch	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Katie Volynets - Katie Boulter	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Linda Fruhvirtova - Katie Boulter	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 ?WWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Madrid
25.04.25	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	0:2
WTA Eastbourne
27.06.24	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	0:2
WTA Linz
29.01.24	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	2:0
WTA Indian Wells
10.03.22	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	0:2
WTA Acapulco
25.02.20	Katie Boulter - Jasmine Paolini	Canceled

Jasmine Paolini - Katie Boulter: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide