Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay, hard - Final

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Jay Clarke		Toby Samuel

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.52	1.46	Watch
			Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.09)	1.46 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jay Clarke
36.5%

Toby Samuel
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Clarke has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jay Clarke's form might have worsened.

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toby Samuel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jay Clarke, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toby Samuel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Jay Clarke - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Clarke will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Samuel will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Clarke: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Clarke (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jay Clarke will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Clarke (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Samuel (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Clarke is ranked ATP: 213. Samuel is ranked ATP: 436.

Clarke is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Samuel is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Samuel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Samuel might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	Jay Clarke - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Jay Clarke - Radu Albot	2:1 ✺
19.11.25	Jay Clarke - Denis Yevseyev	2:1 ✺
17.11.25	Jay Clarke - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Darwin Blanch - Jay Clarke	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWL
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	Charlie Robertson - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
21.11.25	Alexandr Binda - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	Peter Fajta - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
17.11.25	Toby Samuel - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.11.25	Michal Krajci - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWW

Jay Clarke - Toby Samuel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide