Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday


	Jay Clarke		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.48	2.47	Watch
			Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.51	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.62)	2.34 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Clarke
60.2%

Mathys Erhard
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Clarke has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Jay Clarke - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Clarke will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Erhard will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Clarke is ranked ATP: 213. Erhard is ranked ATP: 316.

Clarke is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Erhard's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Clarke might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Jay Clarke - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.56%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Jay Clarke - Radu Albot	2:1 ✺
19.11.25	Jay Clarke - Denis Yevseyev	2:1 ✺
17.11.25	Jay Clarke - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Darwin Blanch - Jay Clarke	2:0 ✺
05.11.25	Stefan Kozlov - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLW
- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Pietro Orlando Fellin	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Matthew Summers	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.11.25	Mathys Erhard - Dali Blanch	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Dan Added	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLL

Jay Clarke - Mathys Erhard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide