Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: GUAYAQUIL (ECUADOR), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 30 October 2023, Monday


	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.95	1.35
	3	1.35	Watch
	3.17	1.37
	3.06	1.34	Watch
	2.9	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.47)	1.36 ↓ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
31%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva's form might have worsened.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Camilo Ugo Carabelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Reis Da Silva will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Reis Da Silva could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ugo Carabelli is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
ATP Challenger
25.10.23	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Hugo Dellien	0:2 ✺
24.10.23	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Arklon Huertas Del Pino	2:0 ✺
12.10.23	Federico Coria - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
10.10.23	Facundo Bagnis - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	1:2 ✺
09.10.23	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLWW
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Challenger
25.10.23	Guido Andreozzi - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
24.10.23	Daniel Dutra da Silva - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
17.10.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Dalibor Svrcina	Canceled ✺
10.10.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	Canceled ✺
08.10.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Thiago Monteiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LW??L

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