Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday


	Pavel Kotov		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	1.35	2.95
	1.38	2.8	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.38	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)	2.83 ↑ (2.69)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
67.2%

Keegan Smith
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pavel Kotov - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 298. Smith is ranked ATP: 301.

Kotov is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Smith's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Smith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kotov is the team to beat.

We predict that Kotov will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kotov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.39%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Pavel Kotov - Filippo Romano	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Borna Gojo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Murphy Cassone - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
11.03.26	Matteo Martineau - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Pavel Kotov - Clement Chidekh	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWW
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Alafia Ayeni - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Keegan Smith - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	August Holmgren - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.12.21	Pavel Kotov - Keegan Smith	2:0

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