Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday


	Keegan Smith		Li Tu

	1	2
	2.24	1.68
	2.24	1.58	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.18	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.84)	1.61 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
42%

Li Tu
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keegan Smith's form might have worsened.

Li Tu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Li Tu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keegan Smith, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Li Tu than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Li Tu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Keegan Smith - Li Tu Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Tu will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 301. Tu is ranked ATP: 381.

Smith is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tu is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tu will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Tu will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Smith won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Keegan Smith - Enzo Aguiard	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Alafia Ayeni - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Keegan Smith - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL
- Li Tu
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Li Tu	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Harry Wendelken - Li Tu	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Kody Pearson - Li Tu	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Li Tu - Alastair Gray	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Pavle Marinkov - Li Tu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.08.22	Keegan Smith - Li Tu	2:1

Keegan Smith - Li Tu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide