Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.41
	1.56	2.27	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.57	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.5)	2.26 ↓ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
58.8%

Keegan Smith
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Smith will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 129. Smith is ranked ATP: 301.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mochizuki might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mochizuki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Jay Clarke - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Mariano Navone - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Nicolas Mejia - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
02.03.26	Federico Agustin Gomez - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLW
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Alafia Ayeni - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Keegan Smith - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	August Holmgren - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Neil Oberleitner - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.01.23	Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith	2:0
04.04.22	Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith	1:2

Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide