Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Knoxville - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday


	Keegan Smith		Shunsuke Mitsui

	1	2
			Watch
	1.92	1.79
	4.74	1.16	Watch
	1.89	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (1.59)	1.58 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
35.7%

Shunsuke Mitsui
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keegan Smith's form might have worsened.

Shunsuke Mitsui has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shunsuke Mitsui's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+24.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keegan Smith, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shunsuke Mitsui than the current prediction. (-24.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shunsuke Mitsui, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Keegan Smith - Shunsuke Mitsui Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 521. Mitsui is ranked ATP: 692.

Smith is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mitsui's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mitsui may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Smith is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
02.11.25	Keegan Smith - Andrew Delgado	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Keegan Smith - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
28.10.25	Darwin Blanch - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
27.10.25	Dan Martin - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Noah Schachter - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW
- Shunsuke Mitsui
ATP Challenger
02.11.25	Tomas Luis - Shunsuke Mitsui	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.10.25	Shunsuke Mitsui - Alex Martinez	1:2 ✺
22.10.25	Derek Pham - Shunsuke Mitsui	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Shunsuke Mitsui - Raphael Perot	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Shunsuke Mitsui - Andrej Loncarevic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLW

Keegan Smith - Shunsuke Mitsui: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide