Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Charlottesville, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday


	Keegan Smith		Martin Damm

	1	2
	3.75	1.25	Watch
			Watch
	3.35	1.27	Watch
	3.32	1.28	Watch
			Watch
	3.49	1.26	Watch
	2.7	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.72)	1.29 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
28%

Martin Damm
72%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keegan Smith's form might have worsened.

Martin Damm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Martin Damm's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keegan Smith, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Martin Damm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Keegan Smith - Martin Damm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 521. Damm is ranked ATP: 191.

Smith is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Damm has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Damm may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Damm is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Smith won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Martin Damm - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.1%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
28.10.25	Darwin Blanch - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
27.10.25	Dan Martin - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Noah Schachter - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Andrew Fenty - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
20.10.25	Aryan Shah - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLW
- Martin Damm
ATP Challenger
27.10.25	Charles Broom - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
23.10.25	Martin Damm - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Alex Rybakov - Martin Damm	Canceled ✺
19.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
18.03.22	Martin Damm - Keegan Smith	1:2

Keegan Smith - Martin Damm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide