Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jingshan - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday


	Keisuke Saitoh		Koki Matsuda

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	1.98
	1.75	1.97	Watch
	1.75	1.94	Watch
	1.80	2.01
	1.73	1.97	Watch
	1.75	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.67)	1.97 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keisuke Saitoh
53%

Koki Matsuda
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keisuke Saitoh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Koki Matsuda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keisuke Saitoh than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Koki Matsuda than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Keisuke Saitoh - Koki Matsuda Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Saitoh will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Matsuda will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Saitoh is ranked ATP: 548., and Matsuda is ranked ATP: 478..

Saitoh is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Performances by Matsuda have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Saitoh could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Saitoh in today's match, at odds of 1.72.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Saitoh has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Koki Matsuda - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.14%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keisuke Saitoh
ITF Tournaments
12.09.26	Jerry Roddick - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Seong Chan Hong	2:1 ✺
10.09.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Keisuke Saitoh	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	Yu Tanaka - Keisuke Saitoh	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Kokoro Isomura	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW
- Koki Matsuda
ATP Challenger
14.09.26	Arthur Weber - Koki Matsuda	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Philip Sekulic - Koki Matsuda	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Martin Borisiouk - Koki Matsuda	0:2 ✺
03.09.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Koki Matsuda	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Koki Matsuda - Jake Delaney	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.11.25	Koki Matsuda - Keisuke Saitoh	2:1
ITF Tournaments
16.09.25	Koki Matsuda - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2

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