Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Matsuyama - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday


	Koki Matsuda		Keisuke Saitoh

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.69	2.03	Watch
			Watch
	1.71	1.99	Watch
	1.75	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.84)	2.02 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Koki Matsuda
54%

Keisuke Saitoh
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Koki Matsuda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Keisuke Saitoh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Koki Matsuda than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Koki Matsuda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keisuke Saitoh than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keisuke Saitoh could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Koki Matsuda - Keisuke Saitoh Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Matsuda is ranked ATP: 653. Saitoh is ranked ATP: 856.

Matsuda is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Saitoh has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Saitoh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Matsuda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Keisuke Saitoh - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Koki Matsuda
ATP Challenger
18.10.25	Koki Matsuda - Maxim Zhukov	1:2 ✺
13.10.25	Aoran Wang - Koki Matsuda	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Mikalai Haliak - Koki Matsuda	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.09.25	Koki Matsuda - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2 ✺
11.09.25	Koki Matsuda - S D Prajwal Dev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLL
- Keisuke Saitoh
ITF Tournaments
31.10.25	Moerani Bouzige - Keisuke Saitoh	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Yuta Kawahashi - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2 ✺
29.10.25	Shu Muto - Keisuke Saitoh	0:2 ✺
27.10.25	Geun Jun Kim - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Yusuke Takahashi - Keisuke Saitoh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
16.09.25	Koki Matsuda - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2

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