Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 San Rafael, CA, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Lea Ma		Diletta Cherubini

	1	2
	1.3	3.1
	1.33	3.2
	1.19	4.03	Watch
	1.33	3.1	Watch
	1.32	2.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.51)	3.27 ↑ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lea Ma
71.7%

Diletta Cherubini
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lea Ma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lea Ma's performance.

Diletta Cherubini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Diletta Cherubini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lea Ma than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lea Ma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diletta Cherubini than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Diletta Cherubini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lea Ma - Diletta Cherubini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ma is ranked WTA: 334. Cherubini is ranked WTA: 376.

Ma is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Cherubini has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ma might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lea Ma
ITF Tournaments
02.10.25	Lea Ma - Sofia Johnson	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Lea Ma - Victoria Flores	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Lea Ma - Rina Saigo	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Arianne Hartono - Lea Ma	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Lea Ma - Ying Zhang	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWW
- Diletta Cherubini
ITF Tournaments
02.10.25	Jaedan Brown - Diletta Cherubini	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Victoria Osuigwe - Diletta Cherubini	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.09.25	Diletta Cherubini - Jing-Jing Lu	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.09.25	Diletta Cherubini - Chenting Zhu	Cherubini D. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
11.09.25	Diletta Cherubini - Alina Charaeva	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWL?L

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