Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Next Gen Finals - Jeddah (World), hard (indoor)

Date: 19 December 2024, Thursday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Learner Tien		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.3	1.62
	2.25	1.6
	2.27	1.61	Watch
	2.27	1.65
	2.34	1.63	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.28	1.64	Watch
	2.27	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.07)	1.62 ↓ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
41.5%

Joao Fonseca
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Learner Tien, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.9%	0%	74.1%

Learner Tien - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Fonseca will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Played with special rules.

Tien is ranked ATP: 122. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 145.

Recent matches Tien is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fonseca is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Our prediction for today's Fonseca to win the game is with odds 1.72.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Tien won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Next Gen Finals
18.12.24	Jakub Mensik - Learner Tien	2:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.11.24	Learner Tien - Aidan McHugh	1:2 ✺
10.11.24	Learner Tien - Christopher Eubanks	0:2 ✺
09.11.24	Nishesh Basavareddy - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
08.11.24	Learner Tien - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLLWW
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Next Gen Finals
18.12.24	Arthur Fils - Joao Fonseca	2:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.11.24	Joao Fonseca - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
14.11.24	Joao Fonseca - Martin Landaluce	2:1 ✺
13.11.24	Joao Fonseca - Kyrian Jacquet	2:0 ✺
12.11.24	Joao Fonseca - Maxime Janvier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Boys Singles US Open
09.09.23	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	2:1
Boys Singles French Open
08.06.23	Joao Fonseca - Learner Tien	1:2

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