Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Queretaro, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Lian Tran		Martina Colmegna

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.46
	2.78	1.46
	4.74	1.16	Watch
	2.64	1.45	Watch
	2.38	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.1)	1.42 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lian Tran
32.5%

Martina Colmegna
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lian Tran has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lian Tran's form might have worsened.

Martina Colmegna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Martina Colmegna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lian Tran than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lian Tran, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martina Colmegna than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Martina Colmegna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lian Tran - Martina Colmegna Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tran is ranked WTA: 341. Colmegna is ranked WTA: 658.

Tran has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Colmegna has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Colmegna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Colmegna might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lian Tran
ITF Tournaments
15.10.25	Lian Tran - Matilde Jorge	0:2 ✺
02.10.25	Lian Tran - Katarina Kuzmova	0:2 ✺
01.10.25	Yuriko Lily Miyazaki - Lian Tran	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.09.25	Lian Tran - Fangran Tian	0:2 ✺
WTA Sao Paulo
07.09.25	Lian Tran - Miriana Tona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWLL
- Martina Colmegna
ATP Challenger
17.10.25	Alice Rame - Martina Colmegna	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Martina Capurro Taborda - Martina Colmegna	1:2 ✺
14.10.25	Martina Colmegna - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Martina Colmegna - Federica Urgesi	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.09.25	Alice Tubello - Martina Colmegna	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLL

Lian Tran - Martina Colmegna: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide