Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday


	Lilian Marmousez		Timofey Skatov

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.4	1.5	Watch
	2.10	1.67	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.49	Watch
	2.4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.02)	1.54 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lilian Marmousez
39.6%

Timofey Skatov
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

65.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lilian Marmousez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lilian Marmousez's form might have worsened.

Timofey Skatov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Timofey Skatov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lilian Marmousez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Timofey Skatov than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Timofey Skatov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lilian Marmousez - Timofey Skatov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Marmousez is ranked ATP: 314. Skatov is ranked ATP: 183.

Marmousez is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Skatov has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Skatov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lilian Marmousez
ATP Challenger
19.01.26	Lilian Marmousez - James Kent Trotter	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Andrej Martin - Lilian Marmousez	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Lilian Marmousez - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
27.11.25	Miguel Damas - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Adrian Andreev - Lilian Marmousez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWWW
- Timofey Skatov
ATP Challenger
19.01.26	Marat Sharipov - Timofey Skatov	Sharipov M. retired ✺
15.01.26	Pol Martin Tiffon - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
15.01.26	Florent Bax - Timofey Skatov	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Kasidit Samrej - Timofey Skatov	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Duje Ajdukovic - Timofey Skatov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 ?LWWW

Lilian Marmousez - Timofey Skatov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide