Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Monastir 8, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday


	Luca Castagnola		Connor Thomson

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.09	1.69
	2.32	1.51	Watch
	2.07	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.83)	1.63 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
43%

Connor Thomson
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Castagnola's form might have worsened.

Connor Thomson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Connor Thomson's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Connor Thomson than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Connor Thomson, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Luca Castagnola - Connor Thomson Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 630. Thomson is ranked ATP: 1274.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Thomson may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
15.10.25	Adam Nagoudi - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Daniel Masur - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Luca Castagnola - Pietro Orlando Fellin	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Luca Castagnola - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Daniel Milavsky - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWLW
- Connor Thomson
ITF Tournaments
14.10.25	Connor Thomson - Yanki Erel	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Connor Thomson - Maxim Shin	1:2 ✺
18.09.25	Alec Deckers - Connor Thomson	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Connor Thomson - Giles Hussey	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Connor Thomson	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLLWL

Luca Castagnola - Connor Thomson: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide