Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Las Vegas - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday


	Luca Castagnola		Daniel Masur

	1	2
			Watch
	3.45	1.26
	3.9	1.24
	3.24	1.29	Watch
	3.54	1.27	Watch
	3.1	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (3.03)	1.27 ↓ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
27%

Daniel Masur
73%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

75%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Daniel Masur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Masur than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Luca Castagnola - Daniel Masur Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Castagnola will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Masur will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 637. Masur is ranked ATP: 536.

Recent form of Castagnola has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Masur is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castagnola may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Masur is a strong favorite.

We predict that Masur will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Daniel Milavsky - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.08.25	Matthew Summers - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Pavlo Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLLL
- Daniel Masur
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Kaylan Bigun - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Michael Zheng - Daniel Masur	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Daniel Masur - Andres Martin	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Preston Stearns - Daniel Masur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLWWW

Luca Castagnola - Daniel Masur: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide