Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Budapest, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday


	Matthew Summers		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	2.25	1.55
	2.38	1.54
	2.44	1.48	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.35	1.54	Watch
	2.36	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 (2.36)	1.53 ↓ (1.55)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matthew Summers
39.4%

Luca Castagnola
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matthew Summers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matthew Summers than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Matthew Summers - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Summers is ranked ATP: 811. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 628.

Summers is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castagnola's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Summers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Castagnola could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Summers won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matthew Summers
ITF Tournaments
12.08.25	Lui Maxted - Matthew Summers	2:1 ✺
06.08.25	Henry Searle - Matthew Summers	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.25	Hamish Stewart - Matthew Summers	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.06.25	Marcus Walters - Matthew Summers	2:0 ✺
27.06.25	Tuncay Duran - Matthew Summers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLLW
- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Pavlo Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
18.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Massimo Giunta	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Nikita Bilozertsev	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
11.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Leo Raquillet	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
25.09.24	Luca Castagnola - Matthew Summers	0:2

Matthew Summers - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide