Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday


	Miguel Tobon		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
			Watch
	1.62	2.1
	2.21	1.59
	1.95	1.83
	1.25	3.73	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.87	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.97)	2.23 ↑ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miguel Tobon
56%

Luca Castagnola
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miguel Tobon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miguel Tobon's performance.

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castagnola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobon (votes: 1 - 50%). Castagnola (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Tobon (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobon (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Castagnola (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tobon is ranked ATP: 682. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 628.

Tobon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castagnola's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Castagnola may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miguel Tobon
ATP Challenger
29.08.25	Daniel Rincon - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
28.08.25	Eliakim Coulibaly - Miguel Tobon	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	Miguel Tobon - Calvin Hemery	Hemery C. retired ✺
13.08.25	Arthur Fery - Miguel Tobon	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Miguel Tobon - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LW?LW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
26.08.25	Matthew Summers - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Pavlo Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
18.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Massimo Giunta	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Nikita Bilozertsev	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL

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