Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Columbus - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday


	Tristan McCormick		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
			Watch
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.59	2.18	Watch
	1.55	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.57)	2.23 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tristan McCormick
58.5%

Luca Castagnola
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tristan McCormick has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan McCormick than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-2%)

Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - McCormick (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. McCormick (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Preview

McCormick is ranked ATP: 485. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 635.

McCormick has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castagnola has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tristan McCormick
ATP Challenger
24.08.25	Tiago Torres - Tristan McCormick	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
21.08.25	Tristan McCormick - Tiago Cacao	1:2 ✺
20.08.25	Tristan McCormick - Diogo Marques	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Tristan McCormick - Daniel Milavsky	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Tristan McCormick - Alberto Barroso Campos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLW
- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Miguel Tobon - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.08.25	Matthew Summers - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Pavlo Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
18.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Massimo Giunta	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Nikita Bilozertsev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW

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