Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Bali, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 August 2025, Wednesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Moerani Bouzige

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.72
			Watch
	1.96	1.78
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.91	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.83)	1.78 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
48.3%

Moerani Bouzige
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Moerani Bouzige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castelnuovo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moerani Bouzige than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moerani Bouzige, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 499. Bouzige is ranked ATP: 330.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Castelnuovo - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Moerani Bouzige - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
31.07.25	Richard Berankis - Luca Castelnuovo	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Uisung Park	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.07.25	Daisuke Sumizawa - Luca Castelnuovo	Canceled ✺
28.06.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Pawit Sornlaksup	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Colin Sinclair	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LW?WW
- Moerani Bouzige
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Moerani Bouzige - Edward Winter	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
20.07.25	Billy Harris - Moerani Bouzige	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	Moerani Bouzige - Govind Nanda	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Moerani Bouzige - James Kent Trotter	Canceled ✺
ATP Los Cabos
13.07.25	Alan Magadan - Moerani Bouzige	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLW?L

Luca Castelnuovo - Moerani Bouzige: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide