Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Quinta Do Lago, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	Lucas Poullain		Patrick Schoen

	1	2
			Watch
	2.03	1.7	Watch
	2.14	1.72
	1.98	1.72	Watch
	2	1.7
	1.92	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.59)	1.72 ↓ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Poullain
46.1%

Patrick Schoen
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lucas Poullain's form might have worsened.

Patrick Schoen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Patrick Schoen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lucas Poullain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patrick Schoen than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Patrick Schoen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lucas Poullain - Patrick Schoen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Poullain is ranked ATP: 418. Schoen is ranked ATP: 781.

Recent performances by Poullain have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Schoen is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Poullain could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 57.6%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Poullain
ITF Tournaments
01.05.26	Rafael Izquierdo Luque - Lucas Poullain	Izquierdo Luque R. Retired ✺
30.04.26	Joao Domingues - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Thomas John Fancutt - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Alexandre Reco - Lucas Poullain	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Xavi Palomar - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 ?WWLW
- Patrick Schoen
ITF Tournaments
01.05.26	Patrick Schoen - Florian Broska	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Francisco Rocha - Patrick Schoen	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Rodrigo Leal - Patrick Schoen	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Henry Searle - Patrick Schoen	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Patrick Schoen - Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW

Lucas Poullain - Patrick Schoen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide