Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mouilleron-Le-Captif, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday


	Lucas Poullain		Stuart Parker

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.7	2.03	Watch
	1.8	2.04
	1.75	1.98	Watch
	1.73	2.02	Watch
	1.62	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.62)	2.05 ↓ (2.15)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Poullain
54.5%

Stuart Parker
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Stuart Parker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lucas Poullain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuart Parker than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stuart Parker, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Lucas Poullain - Stuart Parker Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Poullain will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Parker will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parker: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Poullain (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuart Parker will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Poullain (votes: 1 - 25%). Parker (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Poullain is ranked ATP: 382. Parker is ranked ATP: 412.

Poullain is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Parker's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Parker may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Poullain won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.03%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Lucas Poullain - Maxime Janvier	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Lucas Poullain - Robin Catry	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Raphael Collignon - Lucas Poullain	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Stuart Parker - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLWW
- Stuart Parker
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Kenny De Schepper - Stuart Parker	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Pierre Delage - Stuart Parker	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Stuart Parker - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Matteo Martineau - Stuart Parker	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Maxime Janvier - Stuart Parker	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Stuart Parker - Lucas Poullain	0:2

Lucas Poullain - Stuart Parker: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide