Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pau (France), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 February 2025, Tuesday


	Lucas Poullain		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.43	2.65	Watch
	1.45	2.81
			Watch
	1.44	2.62	Watch
	1.44	2.66	Watch
	1.43	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.62)	2.67 ↑ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Poullain
65%

Vilius Gaubas
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Poullain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lucas Poullain's performance.

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vilius Gaubas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lucas Poullain that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vilius Gaubas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lucas Poullain - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Poullain is ranked ATP: 448. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 181.

Poullain is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gaubas is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Poullain could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Poullain will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
17.02.25	Alexey Vatutin - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
16.02.25	Kaito Uesugi - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.02.25	Lucas Poullain - Anton Matusevich	0:2 ✺
13.02.25	Blake Mott - Lucas Poullain	1:2 ✺
11.02.25	Marcello Serafini - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
10.02.25	Vilius Gaubas - Abedallah Shelbayh	1:2 ✺
07.02.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
06.02.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
05.02.25	Giulio Zeppieri - Vilius Gaubas	Gaubas V. walkover ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
02.02.25	Chris Rodesch - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLW?L

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