Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Referee: Forcadell N. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Match 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Luciano Darderi		Gael Monfils

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.15	1.67
	2.2	1.68	Watch
	2.25	1.7
	2.26	1.7
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.14	1.72	Watch
	2.14	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.4)	1.71 ↑ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
44%

Gael Monfils
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luciano Darderi's performance.

Gael Monfils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gael Monfils might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luciano Darderi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gael Monfils than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gael Monfils could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.2%	0%	80.8%

Luciano Darderi - Gael Monfils Predictions

Users Predictions: Gael Monfils will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Monfils will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Bucharest
15.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
06.04.24	Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
05.04.24	Marcos Giron - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
03.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
02.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Denis Kudla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWWW
- Gael Monfils
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.24	Gael Monfils - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
09.04.24	Gael Monfils - Jordan Thompson	Canceled ✺
ATP Estoril
04.04.24	Marton Fucsovics - Gael Monfils	2:1 ✺
03.04.24	Henrique Rocha - Gael Monfils	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 L?LWL

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