Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Francis Tiafoe		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.1	1.7	Watch
	2.2	1.65
	2.31	1.68
	2.12	1.7
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.15	1.71	Watch
	2.18	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.47)	1.68 ↑ (1.55)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
43.5%

Luciano Darderi
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francis Tiafoe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). Darderi will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 66.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Darderi (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Darderi (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 17. Darderi is ranked ATP: 46.

Tiafoe is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Darderi is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tiafoe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Darderi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tiafoe won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Barcelona
15.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
14.04.25	Tomas Machac - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
ATP Houston
06.04.25	Jenson Brooksby - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 L?LWL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Quentin Halys - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
18.04.25	Luciano Darderi - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
16.04.25	Luciano Darderi - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
15.04.25	Jiri Lehecka - Luciano Darderi	Canceled ✺
ATP Marrakech
06.04.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Houston
06.04.24	Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi	2:0

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