Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Tommy Paul		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2.1
	1.74	2.1	Watch
	1.82	2.13
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.77	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.89)	2.12 ↑ (1.89)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
54.9%

Luciano Darderi
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tommy Paul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Darderi will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 18. Darderi is ranked ATP: 20.

Paul is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Darderi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Paul won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Tommy Paul - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
05.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
03.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLW?W
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
07.08.24	Tommy Paul - Luciano Darderi	2:0
ATP Olympic Games
28.07.24	Luciano Darderi - Tommy Paul	0:2

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