Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday


	Luka Pavlovic		Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.15	1.6	Watch
	2.26	1.71
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.13	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.66)	1.66 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Pavlovic
43.6%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Pavlovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luka Pavlovic's performance.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luka Pavlovic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Luka Pavlovic - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pavlovic will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Pacheco Mendez will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pavlovic: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pavlovic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 200. Pacheco Mendez is ranked ATP: 270.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Pavlovic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pacheco Mendez could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Pacheco Mendez will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pavlovic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
09.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Aidan Mayo	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Facundo Mena	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Andrew Fenty - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
27.03.26	Alexis Galarneau - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWW
- Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
ATP Challenger
09.04.26	Bor Artnak - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	James Duckworth - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.04.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Luka Pavlovic	2:1
09.04.25	Luka Pavlovic - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0

Luka Pavlovic - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide