Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelia, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 March 2026, Friday


	Alexis Galarneau		Luka Pavlovic

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.6	2.1
	1.66	2.34
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.2
	1.62	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.61)	2.2 ↓ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexis Galarneau
57.6%

Luka Pavlovic
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexis Galarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Luka Pavlovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexis Galarneau than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexis Galarneau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luka Pavlovic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Alexis Galarneau - Luka Pavlovic Predictions

Users Predictions: Alexis Galarneau will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Galarneau is ranked ATP: 209. Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 219.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pavlovic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Galarneau will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Galarneau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexis Galarneau
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Alexis Galarneau - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Gael Monfils - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Alexis Galarneau - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLWW
- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Max Houkes - Luka Pavlovic	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Eliakim Coulibaly	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Pol Martin Tiffon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Alexis Galarneau - Luka Pavlovic	0:2

Alexis Galarneau - Luka Pavlovic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide