Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Girona (Spain) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 25 March 2025, Tuesday


	Lukas Neumayer		Gastao Elias

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.65	Watch
	1.37	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.8	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.73	Watch
	1.37	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.59)	2.74 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukas Neumayer
66.2%

Gastao Elias
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukas Neumayer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lukas Neumayer's performance.

Gastao Elias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gastao Elias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukas Neumayer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gastao Elias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Lukas Neumayer - Gastao Elias Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Neumayer will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Elias will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elias: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Neumayer is ranked ATP: 209. Elias is ranked ATP: 332.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Neumayer could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Neumayer will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Gastao Elias - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.51%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukas Neumayer
ITF Tournaments
22.03.25	Lukas Neumayer - Alex Marti Pujolras	0:2 ✺
21.03.25	Lukas Neumayer - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
20.03.25	Lukas Neumayer - Sandro Kopp	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.03.25	Gabriele Pennaforti - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
04.03.25	Maxime Chazal - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWLW
- Gastao Elias
ITF Tournaments
15.03.25	Tiago Pereira - Gastao Elias	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Francisco Rocha - Gastao Elias	0:2 ✺
14.03.25	Cannon Kingsley - Gastao Elias	1:2 ✺
14.03.25	Joao Eduardo Schiessl - Gastao Elias	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	George Loffhagen - Gastao Elias	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWWL

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