Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Berlin, grass - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 June 2026, Thursday


	Madison Keys		Karolina Muchova

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.85
	1.9	1.87
	2.04	1.90
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.95	1.85
	1.95	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 (1.94)	1.87 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madison Keys
49%

Karolina Muchova
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Karolina Muchova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Madison Keys that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karolina Muchova than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karolina Muchova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	0%	28.9%

Madison Keys - Karolina Muchova Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Keys will win (votes: 27 - 73%). Muchova will win (votes: 10 - 27%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keys: 58.7% – 87.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - over (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Madison Keys will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Keys is ranked WTA: 28. Muchova is ranked WTA: 10.

Keys is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Muchova has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Keys won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madison Keys
WTA Berlin
16.06.26	Madison Keys - Xin Yu Wang	2:0 ✺
WTA Roland Garros
01.06.26	Madison Keys - Diana Shnaider	1:2 ✺
30.05.26	Victoria Mboko - Madison Keys	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Antonia Ruzic - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
26.05.26	Hanne Van De Winkel - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWWW
- Karolina Muchova
WTA Berlin
16.06.26	Shuai Zhang - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
WTA Roland Garros
29.05.26	Jil Belen Teichmann - Karolina Muchova	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Kamilla Rakhimova - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
25.05.26	Anastasia Zakharova - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
WTA Roma
08.05.26	Anastasia Potapova - Karolina Muchova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Montreal
03.08.25	Madison Keys - Karolina Muchova	2:1
WTA Eastbourne
27.06.24	Madison Keys - Karolina Muchova	Keys M. walkover
WTA Roma
11.05.21	Karolina Muchova - Madison Keys	Canceled
WTA Beijing
30.09.19	Karolina Muchova - Madison Keys	0:2

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