Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan (Italy), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 June 2024, Wednesday


	Maks Kasnikowski		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
	1.22	4	Watch
	1.25	3.6
	1.22	3.85	Watch
	1.24	4.18
	1.24	4.19
	1.25	3.75	Watch
	1.23	3.95	Watch
	1.24	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.42)	3.88 ↑ (2.68)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maks Kasnikowski
75.9%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maks Kasnikowski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maks Kasnikowski's performance.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Alvarez Varona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maks Kasnikowski than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maks Kasnikowski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Alvarez Varona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Maks Kasnikowski - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Users Predictions: Maks Kasnikowski will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kasnikowski in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Alvarez Varona is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Kasnikowski could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Kasnikowski is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Kasnikowski won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maks Kasnikowski
ATP Challenger
22.06.24	Maks Kasnikowski - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
21.06.24	Maks Kasnikowski - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
20.06.24	Maks Kasnikowski - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
19.06.24	Maks Kasnikowski - Giovanni Fonio	2:0 ✺
17.06.24	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Maks Kasnikowski	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWW
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
19.06.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Edas Butvilas	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
03.06.24	Henrique Rocha - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:0 ✺
26.05.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Hazem Naw	0:2 ✺
22.05.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Alexander Weis	1:2 ✺
20.05.24	Chun Hsin Tseng - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 ?LLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.08.22	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Maks Kasnikowski	0:2

Maks Kasnikowski - Nicolas Alvarez Varona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide