Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Heraklion 12, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday


	Marc Van Der Merwe		Jonas Pelle Hartenstein

	1	2
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.9	1.8	Watch
	1.92	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.62)	1.8 ↓ (2.17)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marc Van Der Merwe
48.8%

Jonas Pelle Hartenstein
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marc Van Der Merwe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marc Van Der Merwe's form might have worsened.

Jonas Pelle Hartenstein has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jonas Pelle Hartenstein's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marc Van Der Merwe than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marc Van Der Merwe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonas Pelle Hartenstein than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jonas Pelle Hartenstein, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marc Van Der Merwe - Jonas Pelle Hartenstein Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Van Der Merwe is ranked ATP: 991. Hartenstein is ranked ATP: 1234.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Hartenstein may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Van Der Merwe could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marc Van Der Merwe
ITF Tournaments
29.10.25	Victor Ryden - Marc Van Der Merwe	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
16.10.25	Marlon Vankan - Marc Van Der Merwe	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Caheer Warik - Marc Van Der Merwe	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWL
- Jonas Pelle Hartenstein
ITF Tournaments
29.10.25	Jonas Pelle Hartenstein - Radu David Turcanu	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Andrea Guerrieri - Jonas Pelle Hartenstein	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Moritz Hoffmann - Jonas Pelle Hartenstein	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Marcel Zielinski - Jonas Pelle Hartenstein	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Jonas Pelle Hartenstein - Peter Fajta	Hartenstein J. P. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWL?

Marc Van Der Merwe - Jonas Pelle Hartenstein: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide