Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Kigali 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday


	Marc Van Der Merwe		Corentin Denolly

	1	2
	2.88	1.34	Watch
	4.8	1.15	Watch
	5	1.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.23 ↑ (2.99)	1.2 ↓ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marc Van Der Merwe
22.2%

Corentin Denolly
77.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

70.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marc Van Der Merwe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marc Van Der Merwe's form might have worsened.

Corentin Denolly has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corentin Denolly's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marc Van Der Merwe than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marc Van Der Merwe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corentin Denolly than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Corentin Denolly, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Van Der Merwe is ranked ATP: 1085. Denolly is ranked ATP: 380.

Van Der Merwe is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Denolly is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Van Der Merwe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Denolly is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Van Der Merwe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marc Van Der Merwe
ITF Tournaments
16.10.25	Marlon Vankan - Marc Van Der Merwe	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Caheer Warik - Marc Van Der Merwe	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
08.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Lawrence Bataljin	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
14.09.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Yassine Dlimi	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLW?
- Corentin Denolly
ITF Tournaments
16.10.25	Dillon Beckles - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Andrea Motta - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Maik Steiner - Corentin Denolly	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Corentin Denolly - Florent Bax	Bax F. retired ✺
10.10.25	Maximilian Homberg - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
09.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly	0:2

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