Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hong Kong, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Marcos Giron		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	3.75	1.29	Watch
	3.25	1.3	Watch
	3.52	1.28	Watch
	3.5	1.3
	4.02	1.26	Watch
	3.6	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (3.06)	1.28 ↓ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marcos Giron
26.2%

Alexander Bublik
73.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marcos Giron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Marcos Giron - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Giron will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Bublik will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Giron is ranked ATP: 64. Bublik is ranked ATP: 11.

Giron may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bublik is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Giron won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Marcos Giron - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 31.12%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marcos Giron
ATP Hong Kong
09.01.26	Marcos Giron - Michael Mmoh	Mmoh M. retired ✺
08.01.26	Alexandre Muller - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Laslo Djere - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
ATP Athens
06.11.25	Marcos Giron - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Brandon Nakashima - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 ?WWLW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Hong Kong
09.01.26	Juncheng Shang - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Metz
05.11.25	Vitaliy Sachko - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
ATP Paris
01.11.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Chengdu
21.09.23	Alexander Bublik - Marcos Giron	0:2
ATP Geneva
22.05.23	Alexander Bublik - Marcos Giron	0:2
ATP Roma
09.05.22	Alexander Bublik - Marcos Giron	1:2
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.21	Alexander Bublik - Marcos Giron	2:1

Upcoming Matches