Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet 2 - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday


	Marek Gengel		Hiroki Moriya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.32	3.1	Watch
	1.35	3.15
	1.11	5.64	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.28	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.53)	3.56 ↑ (2.34)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marek Gengel
73.4%

Hiroki Moriya
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

45.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marek Gengel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marek Gengel's performance.

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hiroki Moriya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marek Gengel than the current prediction. (-18.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marek Gengel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hiroki Moriya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marek Gengel - Hiroki Moriya Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gengel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 20 Games - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 Games - Gengel (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Moriya (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Gengel (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Moriya (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gengel is ranked ATP: 336. Moriya is ranked ATP: 515.

Gengel is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Moriya has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gengel is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Gengel won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marek Gengel
ATP Challenger
25.01.26	Marek Gengel - Ji Sung Nam	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Marek Gengel - Petr Bar-Biryukov	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Luka Pavlovic - Marek Gengel	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Marek Gengel - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Marek Gengel - Matthew Dellavedova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW
- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
25.01.26	Justin Barki - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Hiroki Moriya - Michele Ribecai	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Sanhui Shin - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Shintaro Imai - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.01.25	Marek Gengel - Hiroki Moriya	Gengel M. retired
09.01.23	Marek Gengel - Hiroki Moriya	2:0
18.10.22	Marek Gengel - Hiroki Moriya	2:1

Marek Gengel - Hiroki Moriya: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide