Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villa Maria, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday


	Mariano Kestelboim		Lautaro Midon

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.25	1.29	Watch
	3.33	1.29	Watch
	3.21	1.32	Watch
	3.2	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.33)	1.3 ↓ (1.31)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Kestelboim
28.4%

Lautaro Midon
71.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

71.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

72.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Kestelboim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lautaro Midon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Kestelboim than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lautaro Midon than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mariano Kestelboim - Lautaro Midon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Midon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lautaro Midon will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kestelboim is ranked ATP: 436. Midon is ranked ATP: 262.

In recent matches, Kestelboim has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Midon is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kestelboim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Midon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Midon will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kestelboim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Kestelboim
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Facundo Juarez - Mariano Kestelboim	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.08.25	Nicolas Bruna - Mariano Kestelboim	Kestelboim M. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
05.08.25	Lukas Neumayer - Mariano Kestelboim	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Michael Vrbensky	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Alessio Balestrieri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 W?LWW
- Lautaro Midon
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Lautaro Midon - Hugo Dellien	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
06.09.25	Daniel Vallejo - Lautaro Midon	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Nicolas Kicker - Lautaro Midon	0:2 ✺
04.09.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Lautaro Midon	1:2 ✺
03.09.25	Bautista Vilicich - Lautaro Midon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
30.03.25	Lautaro Midon - Mariano Kestelboim	2:0
02.03.25	Lautaro Midon - Mariano Kestelboim	2:0
20.02.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Lautaro Midon	2:1

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