Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Marketa Vondrousova		Jasmine Paolini

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.9	1.87
	1.9	1.86	Watch
	1.93	1.97
	2.01	1.79	Watch
	1.91	1.91
	1.95	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.21)	1.89 ↑ (1.68)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marketa Vondrousova
49.5%

Jasmine Paolini
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marketa Vondrousova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marketa Vondrousova's performance.

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jasmine Paolini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marketa Vondrousova than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marketa Vondrousova that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.8%	0%	34.2%

Marketa Vondrousova - Jasmine Paolini Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Vondrousova will win (votes: 23 - 63.9%). Paolini will win (votes: 13 - 36.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vondrousova: 48.2% – 79.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marketa Vondrousova will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Vondrousova is ranked WTA: 60. Paolini is ranked WTA: 8.

In recent matches, Vondrousova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paolini is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paolini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vondrousova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marketa Vondrousova
WTA US Open
27.08.25	McCartney Kessler - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
09.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	2:0 ✺
07.08.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Jaqueline Adina Cristian	2:0 ✺
WTA Montreal
29.07.25	Marta Kostyuk - Marketa Vondrousova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLWL
- Jasmine Paolini
WTA US Open
27.08.25	Iva Jovic - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Destanee Aiava - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.25	Iga Swiatek - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Veronika Kudermetova - Jasmine Paolini	1:2 ✺
15.08.25	Jasmine Paolini - Cori Gauff	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Biel
10.04.17	Marketa Vondrousova - Jasmine Paolini	2:0

Marketa Vondrousova - Jasmine Paolini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide