Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	01:00	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	01:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	02:00	HBO Max
Croatia	01:00	HBO Max
Czech Republic	01:00	HBO Max
Denmark	01:00	HBO Max
Finland	02:00	HBO Max
France	01:00	HBO Max
Hungary	01:00	HBO Max
Moldova	02:00	HBO Max
Montenegro	01:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	01:00	HBO Max
North Macedonia	01:00	HBO Max
Norway	01:00	HBO Max
Poland	01:00	HBO Max
Romania	02:00	HBO Max
Serbia	01:00	HBO Max
Slovenia	01:00	HBO Max
Spain	01:00	HBO Max
Sweden	01:00	HBO Max


	Aryna Sabalenka		Marketa Vondrousova

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.34	3.3
	1.32	3.29
	1.34	3.4
	1.3	3.5
	1.35	3.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.3)	3.4 ↓ (3.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka
71.9%

Marketa Vondrousova
28.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Marketa Vondrousova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marketa Vondrousova than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 18 - 75%). Vondrousova will win (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 57.7% – 92.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 20.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 Games - Sabalenka (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aryna Sabalenka will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Vondrousova is ranked WTA: 60.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 3.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

In this match, Sabalenka is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA US Open
31.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Cristina Bucsa	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Leylah Annie Fernandez	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Polina Kudermetova	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Rebeka Masarova	2:0 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
15.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWWL
- Marketa Vondrousova
WTA US Open
31.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Marketa Vondrousova	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Marketa Vondrousova - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	McCartney Kessler - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
09.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Cincinnati
09.08.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	2:0
WTA Berlin
21.06.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	0:2
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.24	Marketa Vondrousova - Aryna Sabalenka	2:1
WTA Adelaide
05.01.23	Marketa Vondrousova - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2
WTA Australian Open
21.01.22	Marketa Vondrousova - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2
WTA Miami
29.03.21	Marketa Vondrousova - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2
WTA Hertogenbosch
12.06.18	Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova	2:1

Aryna Sabalenka - Marketa Vondrousova